Series Conversion Dominance

This page explains how the metrics on this site are built and how to interpret them. The goal is to measure how consistently a team turns 1st downs into new 1st downs (or TDs), while accounting for game context.

1) What is a “down set”?

A down set is a team’s possession beginning on 1st down (excluding kneels) and ending when that set either converts (earns another 1st down or a TD) or fails (punt/turnover/FG attempt/end of half, etc.). Think of it as a “mini-drive” starting at 1st down.

2) Series Conversion Rate (DSSR / DSCv%)

Series Conversion Rate is the percentage of 1st downs that become another 1st down or a touchdown. Higher means an offense is sustaining possessions; lower means a defense is forcing stops.

• Offense DSSR: % of a team’s 1st downs that convert.
• Defense Allowed: % of opponent 1st downs that convert against that defense.

3) Why volume-weighted, not just a percentage?

Raw rates can be noisy in small samples. This site uses a volume-aware approach so a team’s score reflects both how well they converted and how many chances they had.

Conceptually, the site aggregates conversion events (successful conversions) across the selected games and compares them to expected outcomes.

4) Leverage weighting (LW)

Not all down sets are equal. A 1st down at midfield in a one-score game matters more than a 1st down while up 30. We weight each down set by a leverage score derived from win probability context at the start of the down set.

• Higher leverage ⇒ the down set has more impact on win probability.
• Lower leverage ⇒ the down set is closer to “garbage time” impact.

5) LW Series Conversion Dominance (LWNSCD)

The primary metric you see on the leaderboard is LW Net (LWNSCD). It is built as:

LW Net = (Leverage-weighted offensive down set success)
         − (Leverage-weighted defensive down set success allowed)

Interpretation:

• Positive LW Net ⇒ your offense sustains better than your defense allows (overall advantage).
• Negative LW Net ⇒ your defense is being sustained on more than your offense sustains (overall disadvantage).

6) Opponent adjustment (toggle)

The Opponent-adjusted toggle applies a one-step schedule correction using the opponents’ season-to-date profile. For each game/week, we adjust a team’s offense and defense relative to what their opponent typically allows/produces versus league average.

Adj Off = Off − (Opp Def Allowed − League Avg Def Allowed)
Adj Def Allowed = Def Allowed − (Opp Off − League Avg Off)
Adj Net = Adj Off − Adj Def Allowed

Note: this is intentionally lightweight and transparent (not a full iterative opponent model).

7) Strength of Schedule (SOS tab)

SOS is calculated as the average opponent LW Net across the selected week range. Higher SOS means tougher opponents. If the opponent-adjustment toggle is on, SOS will use the adjusted version when available.

8) Reading the charts

• Offense vs Defense map: right = better offense; up = better defense (lower defensive conversion allowed).
• LWNSCD vs Point Differential: shows how well LW Net aligns with scoring margin; the band is a simple confidence band around the trend line.
• Over/underperformers: residuals show teams scoring more/less than expected given LW Net.

9) Limitations

• Opponent adjustment is a simplified one-step correction (not iterative like DVOA-style models).
• Injuries, weather, and matchup specifics are not explicitly modeled.
• Leverage weighting depends on win probability inputs and game state definitions.

10) Data source

Data is sourced from nflverse. This site is not affiliated with the NFL.